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A former special forces colonel, minister of state Al Carns was this week on manouevres warning that the UK must ready itself for war with Russia.

“The threat of conflict is knocking on Europe’s door once more. That’s the reality. We’ve got to be prepared to prevent it,” he stated, in remarks that go beyond previous admonitions by his boss, the defence secretary.

“Collectively, everybody – what is their role if we get caught in an existential crisis, and what do they need to be aware they need to do and what they can’t do, and how do we mobilise the nation to support a armed campaign?”

It was stark language from the middle-aged born in Scotland MP, who has had an remarkably rapid rise to his role of minister for the military.

A Swift Political Ascent

Naturally for a politician with a history of service in the armed forces, there is conjecture about whether he is a potential future leader – as with, at various points, previous colleagues from a service background before him.

This time, however, some governing party MPs think there could be a real prospect of Carns being a candidate if and when the opportunity arises.

One of the reasons for that is that Carns has been involved in politics for longer than it seems, as a former military adviser to three previous defence secretaries.

But there is also the risk of being overhyped as a politician with a backstory colleagues think will appeal to the public – without enough consideration of whether they have the track record and political instincts to make it to the top.

From the Battlefield to Westminster

Carns was born in Aberdeen, and state educated, before enlisting in the Royal Marines in 1999 at the age of 19. He rose through the ranks and was awarded the Military Cross in 2011 “in recognition of gallant and distinguished services in Afghanistan”.

It came as a surprise when he resigned from the armed forces after 24 years of service to stand as an MP in Birmingham Selly Oak, shortly before he was due to be promoted to brigadier.

And in a sign he was immediately earmarked as a talent, the prime minister appointed him as a minister for veterans affairs straight after the 2024 election. He was promoted later that year to the more prominent position with a portfolio covering all the military.

Media Presence and Political Attacks

Chiselled and confident, Carns has been an periodic spokesperson for the government, and has been an sharp partisan operator when putting pressure on rival parties over issues of national security.

He has also found time to set a new global benchmark this year along with former military colleagues by climbing Mount Everest in under five days without acclimating on the mountain, using xenon gas.

Ambitions and Party Skepticism

His name entered the conversation as a possible future leader seriously around the time of a leadership election last autumn, when his backers began sounding out MPs about a run for the job. That failed to get off the ground, with the prime minister's office firmly backing another candidate.

Since then, feature articles of Carns have begun to appear in the media, with one newspaper presenting him as the “Action Man” that some were trying to stop from challenging the prime minister.

While some MPs think he could be leadership material, others think he is making himself appear too ambitious when there is no opening at the top. There is also a wariness about the rapid rise of a high flyer from outside politics.

“There’s no evidence that being senior in the military equates to being any good at politics any more than being a top prosecutor,” notes one MP. “He is completely untested.”