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Only 48 hours prior to the NYC race for mayor, political analyst Michael Lange made a bold electoral prediction – going beyond who would win citywide, but precinct by precinct. Lange, an expert in elections born and raised in the city, devoted over a decade in progressive politics and emerged as something of a well-known figure this year for his thorough analyses into city data and polling.

He released his extremely precise prediction map – which correctly forecast that Zohran Mamdani was victorious while failed to predict the independent candidate’s strong performance – on his Substack, his platform. Lange possesses a talent for clever terms. He pointed out, as an example, the divide between the progressive stronghold, running from Park Slope to Bushwick to a third locale, where he predicted (correctly) that the left-wing candidate would triumph by huge margins, and the conservative-leaning zone on affluent parts of Manhattan. In those areas, “the Free Press and Wall Street Journal surpass the mainstream paper” in audience and most voters leaned toward Cuomo, campaigning as a moderate alternative.

Voting Day Trends and Unexpected Results

What was your night?

It was necessary because they were dropping approximately 200K votes into the system frequently! I felt somewhat anxious at the beginning: The candidate led the early vote by 12 points, but came large groups of ballots added after that and the advantage dropped from 12% to 8%. I was worried.

You know, there was a world where yesterday turned out somewhat badly for him, where the opponent would have essentially doubling his votes from the Democratic primary. But the winner gained 500,000 supporters to his primary coalition, and that’s a huge reason why he succeeded. He went out and greatly broadened his base from the first round.

Coalition Building

How did Mamdani gain those extra votes from?

He built the coalition that the left always wanted to build: diverse racially, it’s young, tenants and it’s people squeezed by affordability. He gained significantly with minority communities, working- and middle-class voters, relative to the earlier election. Additionally he further maximized his core of left-leaning activists, youthful radicals, and Muslims and south Asians. Victory required without expanding his appeal.

He built the alliance that the left always wanted to build: diverse, youthful, renters and residents struggling with costs

There were also a number of supporters of both candidates – is this significant?

It is a genuine phenomenon, confined to working-class Latinos, south Asians and Muslims. Voters in immigrant strongholds that supported Trump previously backed the progressive this year. However it’s not that he was gaining Caucasian laborers and Maga voters.

Voter Participation and Impact

A major development of the election was the sky-high participation. Who benefited?

Each candidate. Participation was significantly higher than anticipated. I thought we might go over 2 million, but it reached 2.3M – that is a lot of darn voters. Existed a substantial anti-Mamdani block, who were motivated, but his supporters was also motivated, and that sufficed to secure victory.

You predicted he’d exceed 50% of the vote. Is he on course for that?

Currently it appears he’s likely to surpass half. He’s at just over 50% but remain probably 200K ballots uncounted as of Wednesday morning. Thus it’s not it’s definitive, but I think it’s likely, and I wish he achieves it because then none can claim Sliwa was a spoiler.

Republican Collapse

The GOP candidate, the conservative contender, is the other big story. His support plummeted.

He lost any district in any borough. Not even one neighborhood in the borough, similar to an 88% Trump neighborhood. That truly surprised me. The independent held Caucasian districts, affluent zones and very religiously Jewish areas, and plus gained many Republicans on Staten Island with a high participation. I believe there was significant tactical voting by GOP voters. This happened before the former president tweeted his support for Cuomo, but it assisted. It might have changed the outcome unless the winning alliance hadn’t grown.

Progressive Strongholds

What about your much mentioned left-wing base – was support for the candidate dominant in those areas of Brooklyn and Queens?

I think there was a little dilution of the commie corridor in certain places like Astoria or Greenpoint that have more older white ethnic folks. There, for example, the property owners and homeowners all went for the independent. Thus there was some opposition. However no, largely the commie corridor is another huge reason why Mamdani won – he scored between high percentages in specific neighborhoods.

Community Support

Prior to the election there was coverage on if Mamdani was gaining ground with Jewish New Yorkers. Any indication that he succeeded?

Exist areas with many secular and more progressive-leaning Jews – such as specific locales – where he performed strongly. But in the affluent districts like the Manhattan area, his position on Israel definitely mattered there. Similarly in the more middle-class Jewish areas including Queens neighborhoods, or Bronx areas – they all leaned the independent. Plus, there are Jewish immigrants from Eastern Europe in southern Brooklyn, who were strongly supportive. Therefore it’s unclear if there were crazy narrative-busters on this one, but he retained more progressive Jewish neighborhoods and including sections of the another locale by big margins.

Political Impact

Did Mamdani redefine what the city represents in politics? Will the commie corridor become a launch pad for progressive contenders?

Absolutely, it’s no coincidence that some of the biggest political leaders from the left come from a few areas in the boroughs. I believe that there will be more of that – people will come from these areas to be elevated nationally.

However I believe that every city in the US can have their own commie corridor. Cities are the centers of progressive influence in America – because youth reside there, people rent and they represent locales where people are crushed by the disparities we face.