Keir Starmer's Allies Begin 'Block Andy Burnham' Drive to Prevent Mayor's Parliamentary Re-entry

Key supporters of Prime Minister Keir Starmer have reportedly kicked off a concerted effort to stop Andy Burnham, the Labour Party Mayor of Greater Manchester, from making a return to parliament. This move follows the resignation of a Manchester MP, which has sparked an impending by-election.

Significant Hurdles in the Selection Process

Multiple members on the party's powerful NEC have reportedly suggested it would be highly challenging for Mr. Burnham to successfully pass through the candidate selection process. This is primarily due to the sizable presence of Starmer loyalists on the body who are anxious to avoid any future challenge to Starmer's leadership.

The Labour party machine is said to have mobilised following the revelation of the MP's planned departure, with officials and MPs voicing warnings about the substantial expense and electoral danger of a resulting election for mayor in Greater Manchester.

Burnham's Ambitions and Party Concerns

Andy Burnham has been open about his national ambitions. Last year, he caused outrage within No 10 and among cabinet ministers when he remarked that numerous MPs had urged him to stand for the party leadership.

There has long been speculation that he is aiming for a return to parliament to potentially stand for the party leadership should a challenge to Sir Keir emerge. However, allies of the Mayor have cautioned against overstating the level of any scheming, suggesting he is deeply committed to his job as mayor and would solely return Westminster if he felt he had a meaningful contribution to make.

"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a supporter stated.

Political Landscape and Poll Ratings

Against a backdrop of polls indicating Sir Keir is struggling in the polls and many MPs despondent about Labour's fate at the next election, Andy Burnham stands out as the only prominent Labour figure with favourable ratings with the public.

If Mr. Burnham decide to run, several hurdles stand in his way. He would need to be selected by the NEC—where the odds are stacked against him—and then win the byelection against challenges from Reform and pro-Gaza independents, all prior to any potential bid for the leadership.

Efforts to Block Burnham

Senior Labour sources have indicated that a "Block Burnham" campaign is already under way, with the party's organisation being tightly controlled by senior aides of the Prime Minister.

The Prime Minister personally said that the by-election procedure was in its "early stages" and told his MPs to stop talking about possible leadership challenges.

Andy Burnham, speaking before the MP's resignation was finalised, said to journalists: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."

Costs and Risks

Figures on the committee have reportedly cited not only personal opposition towards Mr. Burnham but also the significant expense of a by-election for mayor in Greater Manchester. This could divert an estimated £500,000 in campaign funds from other crucial elections across the country.

"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," one source said.

A number of sources also expressed concerns about Reform UK potentially win the mayoralty left by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a significant symbolic victory for them.

Role of the Unions and Democratic Concerns

Being an elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's approval to stand. There is also speculation the committee could enforce an all-female shortlist to prevent his candidacy.

Yet, a supporter warned against assuming the NEC would simply block his candidacy, even though Sir Keir's team is widely thought to control it.

The trade unions hold a significant number of seats on the NEC. While the biggest unions are currently keeping their counsel, sources indicated they would be opposed to anything perceived as meddling from Downing Street.

The leader of the Fire Brigades Union said: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."

By-election Battle

The seat in question has a considerable Labour lead. However, Reform is expected to launch a significant challenge, capitalising on its vote in one part of the constituency. Labour assesses it is on firmer ground in the larger Greater Manchester section, though it could face a challenge from pro-Gaza independents.

If Mr. Burnham return to parliament, he would need the support of 80 Labour MPs to mount a bid for the leadership, a hurdle that is far from certain given he is viewed with scepticism by some on the backbenches.

The resigning MP confirmed he was resigning due to declining health, which had made it untenable for him to carry on in his role. He is also subject to a parliamentary standards investigation concerning his involvement in an inappropriate online group.