Ten years following the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that polarised the nation and unleashed chaos, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and electorate drifted into Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two prominent writers from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially fraught and monumental public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our region remains very unstable."
Book Publication Aims to Stir Debate
The pair have studied the governmental, financial and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the matter with a tour of lectures that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everybody, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose implications have not been clarified because then you land with an extraordinarily polarised community where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the people who have won lack clarity exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue this point is looming, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the possibility, leaving it unclear if and when there might be a referendum.
Absence of Serious Debate
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has masked the shortage of serious debate, noted McBride.
"Many are for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. Much has taken place in scholarly circles but hardly any government figures or activists want to engage with even the basics. For instance, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the book, neither author supports unification or the status quo. They writes two pieces that seek impartiality in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the argument against, assembling economic and social figures, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Arguments encompass national emblems, levies, healthcare systems, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The aim is to enlighten and stimulate dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there hasn't quite been a discussion," said O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an acceptance of the notion that there may exist good arguments on each side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens say they favour unification but reject paying higher taxes or implementing a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' British identity.
"The Irish government does need to establish what the proposal from Irish nationalism is aside from just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist considers a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it could happen suddenly. "You could have just a mad or a ill-advised or a negligent official who declares: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid arguments, he commented. "Somebody will win on this issue and the other side will in the end be defeated but both parties has possesses important lessons to acquire from the opposing viewpoints."
Call for Broader Debate
Westminster must join the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish issue."
