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Increasing worries exist regarding the potential of armed conflict among Horn of Africa countries, Ethiopia and the Eritrean government, as aggressive discourse has escalated in the last month.

What Has Ethiopia Stated?

Ethiopia's, being landlocked, calls for passage to the maritime outlet through Eritrean territory has sparked a intense war of words.

Ethiopian Prime Minister initially stated publicly in 2023 that his country's access to the sea was an crucial concern, statements that Eritrea ignored.

Ties between the neighboring nations have frequently been strained. Following a decades-long battle for independence, Eritrea, which has a 1,350km (840-mile) maritime frontage, legally broke away from Ethiopia in 1993, making it cut off from the sea.

In 1998, a military clash started in which numerous people were killed.

Latest Remarks from Ethiopia's Leadership

Abiy and military leader the army commander have publicly asserted sovereignty of Eritrea's maritime facility of Assab – about 60km from the frontier - and implied the desire to capture it through military means.

On 1 September, the Prime Minister said Ethiopia's "blunder" of losing entry to the Red Sea as a due to Eritrean independence would be "addressed in the future".

The Ethiopian envoy to neighboring Kenya, ex-military officer Bacha, said that the port was "Ethiopian property" and would be returned "by force".

Eritrean Response to the Claims

Amid continuous challenges from Ethiopian officials, Asmara's position has been restricted to concise remarks on online platforms from Information Minister the minister.

Officials have denied Ethiopia's push for sea access labeling it "dangerous" and a "toxic agenda" of "expansionism" – a policy of reclaiming previous domains.

The information ministry alerted on 16 September that efforts to validate "obvious provocation" would have significant repercussions for the Ethiopian government and its neighbors and is a "redline that should not be crossed|violated|breached".

Military Movements on the Border

There have been no reports of major military movements in the border areas between the two countries.

However, in Ethiopia, state television has shown completion events of many recruits at various military training camps.

The director of staff section of the armed forces, Lt Gen Hachalu Sheleme, recently said in an conversation that the military was in a "reliable position" as "numerous of recruits" were entering service, which he said was "a signal to our enemies".

Past Roots of the Conflict

For over fifty years from 1890, Eritrea was ruled by Italian rulers.

After World War II, it was then controlled by the British military before becoming a federated part of Ethiopia.

However in 1962 Emperor Haile Selassie I cancelled this agreement and the region became totally absorbed into the Ethiopian state.

A three-decade long civil war occurred, concluding with Ethiopia's defeat in 1991. Independence was then confirmed by voters in a vote in 1993.

For a few years in the 1990s, there were positive ties between the governments in Ethiopia's capital and Eritrea's capital, but they disagreed over the exact location of their mutual frontier, leading to war in 1998.

Though this concluded in a ceasefire agreement in 2000, it was partially applied, and the both countries stayed at loggerheads.

This changed in 2018, when Abiy made approaches to Eritrea's leader the president. The both leaders endorsed a announcement that the hostilities was over – a move that gained Abiy the prestigious award.

The two governments were then allies in the country's recent civil war in the northern region.

Yet diplomatic connections have later worsened again.