Day-to-Day Murders in the nation Drop Over a Third During Claudia Sheinbaum, As per Official Data

The average number of per-day homicides each month in the country has decreased by 37% since President Claudia Sheinbaum took office, per recent government figures. Nevertheless, security experts have cautioned that homicide numbers might not indicate improved countrywide safety.

Marked Decline in Daily Numbers

Officials reported an average of nearly 55 murders a day in the month of November compared with nearly 87 when Sheinbaum assumed the presidency in the previous September. This announcement was delivered by the head of the nation's federal public security agency, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the leader's daily news conference on Tuesday.

“The result in killings that have been recorded in these past months is extremely notable,” Sheinbaum said, noting that in November the least figure of murders were documented for any single November in the last decade.

Recent Background and Official Strategy

Violent drug cartel infighting, combined with the administration's highly militarised operations to confront the trafficking organizations, have led to Mexico’s homicide numbers soar in recent years. The figure peaked at a maximum of 36,773 homicides in 2020, as reported by the country’s official data office.

That resulted in Mexico a murder figure more than 4x higher than that of the United States. From that point, killings have been on the decline, dropping to 33,550 last year. Sheinbaum has credited her national security plan for an seemingly more pronounced decline in homicides in the current year.

At a media briefing in August, the head of state said: “We have a plan, there is monitoring of the plan, and we have detailed monitoring municipality by municipality in some cases. The plan is effective. And we have to continue working at it daily.”

The central components of Sheinbaum’s security plan encompass:

• Bolstering Mexico’s federal guard.
• Improving information gathering and investigation efforts.
• Increased collaboration between government departments.

Expert Caution and Data Limitations

But, security researchers urged caution that relying on murder numbers to paint a picture of peace was misleading. This is especially true given the rise in different criminal activities such as abductions.

“That would be excellent information if this was a reduction, but I think we can’t just concentrate on the murder data and think: ‘Well then, excellent,’” said Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an specialist on Mexican organised crime. “I would be guardedly optimistic.”

As reported by the public policy analysis organization Mexico Evalúa, killings overall fell by over 20% in the initial 10 months of this year versus the identical period last year. However, disappearances have risen by 15% and in some regions have risen by as much as 200%.

“Statistics on homicides is not valid for assessing the situation of public insecurity,” argued Armando Vargas, a safety expert at Mexico Evalúa. “First, we have law enforcement and prosecutors who do not have the capacity or the inclination to properly recognize and categorize corpses. Second, organised [criminals] … have the capability to hide violence through abductions.”

Vargas pointed out that relying on month-to-month means of daily homicides was also problematic because it could mask days when there were notably high levels of killings.

“Employing the daily average makes surges of violence invisible,” he stated.

Arrests and Confiscations as Measures of Progress

Where the government can point to the effectiveness of its safety plan is on arrests and seizures. Almost 40,000 individuals were arrested between October 2024 and this past November for major offenses, according to official figures. Over 20,000 weapons were confiscated and 311 tonnes of narcotics confiscated.

“The former US president cannot claim President Sheinbaum of doing nothing, because in reality she is accomplishing a lot with these many thousands of detentions, many thousands of confiscations, and all the operational degrading of organised crime. It’s extremely in political terms beneficial,” said Vargas.

Persistent Violence and Societal Anger

Yet despite these efforts, Mexico remains grappling with extreme bloodshed, with a number of regions in the throes of cartel-fueled violence. Last month there was a notable killing of a popular mayor in the state of Michoacan, one of 10 local leaders killed in the past year.

A short time later, thousands of protesters demonstrated in Mexico City and across the country to express their anger at graft and cartel violence.

“The government shares [data] in a manner to create a narrative of security. From a political standpoint it’s highly successful, socially it’s extremely questionable,” the analyst concluded.